Tuesday, October 29, 2013

The old rumor that Anhuser-Busch-Inbev wants to by SAB-Miller has returned. This rumor has been circulating for a couple years and it had quieted last year when SAB-Miller bought the Mexican brewer, Grupo. Now the rumor returns. There's a deeper historical component that makes the story more than just the monopolistic domination of a market sector. Does this tell a sudsy story of the end of Western dominance? Inbev has its origin centuries ago in Belgium. It acquired European brewers as that region declined in power. Then it jumped the Atlantic to buy brewers in the Americas as growth slowed here. For the past decades, the real growth story in beer has been Asia. Snow Brewing in China has become a huge competitor. SAB-Miller has a market cap of about $80B. So after a premium, AB-Inbev would end up paying close to $100B to acquire it. http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/28/massive-merger-expected-between-anheuser-busch-and-sabmiller/

Thursday, October 24, 2013

What's happening with the US housing market? After the government pushed the housing bubble through regulations and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, the subprime crash in 2007-8 has collapsed the entire housing market. During the inflation phase of the bubble, homeowners used home-equity loans to withdraw money from their home to spend in other areas. Now with many mortgages "below water" that line of easy credit is much reduced. After the big wave of foreclosures pushed down prices, investors have been buying homes. One trend has been all-cash purchases. For example, all-cash purchases reached over half of transactions in regions that were housing bubble hot spots, like Las Vegas. I expect the housing market will remain weak for years due to tighter lending standards and changing demographics. The US's housing market will decrease from the high levels of home ownership reached in the mid-2000s and renting will be more common.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

What is the future of money? Money developed for multiple needs. The dominant explanation is that money developed for trading when bartering wasn't sufficient. But another big boost was so that governments could more easily collect taxes. As governments grew so too did financial companies. Their symbiotic arrangement is clear around the world. With the current model of money as controlled by governments, money has become a global market as trade spread. Modern money is a high speed commodity in a global financial marketplace. Money spans the centralized markets of individual countries to form a network of international markets. What's next? Will money switch to a distributed model if money becomes electronic? Imagine a world where bitcoins are the preferred currency for purchasing. How will governments tax? Will national tax laws survive in a world where the money isn't controlled by a nation? Will national debts be supported if nobody wants national currencis?