Wealth of nations

Looking at how the EU continues to struggle has made me wonder at the future of nations.  What will nations look like in a century?

Looking backwards -- nations increased their wealth by territorial expansion in the Middle Ages.  That continued with centuries of imperial domination of smaller nations.

By the 16th-17th century, a nation's wealth was measured by the size of its gold holdings. The mercantilist era favored gold over the more illiquid holding of land.

During the industrial era, a nation's value changed to be defined by its manufacturing. How much coal it mined, or how much steel it made, became more important than how much gold it had stored in its vaults.

For the last century, national wealth was directly linked to how its currency was

traded across the world's markets.

The USA gained enormous status when the dollar was accepted as the de facto currency after WW1 hurt the Pound, Franc, Mark. etc. And the devastation of Europe in WW2 gave the USA and the dollar enormous strength.

Now after decades of Keynesian banking, massive national debts have piled up for every nation.  What's next?

For the EU, the next step might be negative interest rates.  This was tried in a small way last year and the EU is currently limited by a "zero-bound" in pushing more gov stimulus via QE-style tricks.

Mario Draghi seemed to say this week that the ECB would take the next step to try to inflate the euro.  Like the US's Fed, the ECB has been printing lots of money but the huge influx of money hasn't sparked a recovery. The monetary pumping has failed.  Only central bankers complain about "too low" interest rates.

I think that if the ECB goes to a policy of negative interest rates, then lots of money now in EU banks will move out to other nations, most likely the USA and China. And the EU's euro will decline in power as an international currency.