Friday, June 14, 2013

Japan's debt

I'm starting to think that Japan will be the trigger of the next financial crisis.

Japan's public perception is a strong economy that showed it could innovate and dominate. Is that still true?
My belief is that Japan is much more driven by demographics than any inherent societal advantage. Japan had a huge population boom after WW2. The nation was encouraging its citizens to emigrate in the 1960s and 1970s. In the 1980s and 1990s, Japan's population was in its most productive years. The pressure for housing caused a huge boom in real estate.

Now, after 2 decades of no growth, Japan has a population that is increasingly tilted towards people over 65 that are retiring and not buying. Bank of Japan's view The scary amount of national debt owed by the government -- over a quadrillion yen is twice the size of the country’s economy. Japan's debt clock

Japan's debt service now accounts for nearly half of government revenue, up from about 4% in the early 1970s. More than half of public spending is financed by new debt issues. As a result, the government borrows heavily just to service debt. How can Japan ever get above water?
In Japan the birthrate is low and there’s little immigration. Japan is actually shrinking by a million people each year. If interest rates climb, Japan's government will have to pay ever higher amounts to service its debt. Eventually it won't be able to.

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