Friday, January 31, 2014

Google's sale of Motorola -- profit or loss?

There's a flurry of articles about Google's sale of Motorola. For example:
this report gives the broad details on the deal with Lenovo.

Most articles are negative, concluding with a "buy high, sell low" message.

In contrast, I think the deal was good for Google. My calculations:
  •  purchase = $12.5B
  •  Motorola cash+investments = $5B
  •  sale of Motorola set-top division = $2.4B
  •  sale of Motorola handset division = $2.9B
That equates to: 12.5 - (5+2.4+2.9) = $2.2B total cost

This columnist came to a similar conclusion but estimates a total cost of $3.2B.

There were probably other tax-loss benefits and some R&D credits to help Google.  They might be offset by about $1B in losses for running the money-losing company for about two years.  Motorola lost $100-200M/quarter on the handset business.

If the patent portfolio is worth over $2-3 billion, then Google comes out ahead on the whole deal.

Google may even show a profit if tax losses from Motorola are realized.
These might be worth $6.5B spread over the next half-decade.

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