3 Rules of Life

[Yep, the topic is ambitious and a bit pretentious, but what the heck.]

Rule 1: Life is uncertain
Multiple outcomes are possible everyday for everybody.  Some are good; some are bad.

This sounds obvious and trite.  Some people minimize the feelings caused of not knowing what will happen next by ignoring the uncertainties, by focusing on only one possible outcome, or by rejecting the uncertainties through a lifestyle without changes.

Rule 2: Uncertainty is probabilistic
Not al outcomes are equally likely.   Some are nearly 100% likely to happen. Will the sun rise tomorrow? Some are nearly 0%. Will you be hit by a falling piano? The hard cases are the ones in the middle. Will you get sick? Will you receive a telephone call?

All of the possible outcomes can be ranked by likelihood. However the ranking is difficult because people are poor at assigning probabilities. We have biases and our thinking is often faulty.  We confuse risks with probabilities.  Low-probability events with huge results are often viewed as more likely than high-probability events with small results.  People worry more about an earth-shattering asteroid (very low probability, but with fatal results) than stubbing your toe (higher probability, but a recoverable injury).

Uncertainty is often not independent.  Events might be chained.  A Bayesian logic might apply. One thing does lead to another.  Increasing one uncertainty, such as speeding in a car, can lead to other uncertainties.

Rule 3: The rules change
Even recognizing the inherent uncertainty of life and understanding the varying likelihoods of them, the last rule is that reality throws curveballs.  Or as in the quote of Donald Rumsfeld, there are "unknown unknowns".